Reducing uncertainty in wind project energy estimates


Wind project energy production estimates are a key element in determining how a wind project can be externally financed, and the most important input into an energy estimate is the wind resource assessment. The future performance of a planned wind project is commonly evaluated based on historical wind data combined with one or more years of site measurements. Consultants who evaluate the wind resource for project financing quantify the uncertainty that stems from various site conditions and wind resource assessment methods. When other factors are equal, a more thorough resource assessment campaign makes it possible to obtain more favorable financing.

A common situation faced by wind developers occurs when a met mast has been collecting measurements for a period of time. Based on data available at that time, uncertainties in the wind resource assessment may make it difficult to obtain financing; additional data may make financing feasible, or provide better terms. This white paper compares the cost of renting a Triton to the purchase of a met mast for additional measurements, and calculates the increase in project value from each method. The comparison shows that using the Triton for the additional measurement campaign reduces uncertainties and provides a cost-effective way to increase project value.

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